China records 4.648 million marriage registrations in nine months
Registrations fell 9.78% from a year earlier to their lowest January–September total in 18 years, as a demographer forecasts a further annual decline.
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Registrations fell 9.78% from a year earlier to their lowest January–September total in 18 years, as a demographer forecasts a further annual decline.
China recorded 4.648 million marriage registrations in the first nine months of 2026, down 9.78% from a year earlier, according to figures released by the Ministry of Civil Affairs on 4 November. The same period in 2025 saw 5.152 million marriage registrations.
The decline follows a rebound in 2025, when registrations rose 10.8% to 6.76 million for the full year.
Demand for dates considered auspicious, local incentives and a new service allowing couples to register anywhere in China helped that rebound, the South China Morning Post said, as relayed by VnExpress. Reuters identified the latest nine-month total as the lowest for that period in 18 years.
The nationwide service began under revised regulations on 10 May 2025. The rules removed geographic restrictions and the need to present a household registration booklet, making it easier for people working away from their registered hometowns to marry.
Analysis
He Yafu, an independent demographer based in Guangdong province, estimates that full-year 2026 registrations will be between 5.88 million and 6.46 million. He based the forecast on the share of marriages historically registered in each quarter; even the top of his range would be below the previous year’s total.
China’s population fell by 3.39 million in 2025, its fourth consecutive annual decline, to 1.405 billion, National Bureau of Statistics data show. Births fell to 7.92 million, and the birth rate reached a record low of 5.63 per 1,000 people.
He said marriage registrations closely track births because most Chinese couples marry before having children and births outside marriage are rare. He forecasts that the decline in registrations in 2026 will have a negative effect on births in 2027.
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