China’s trade surplus hits $1.04 trillion as exports rise 35.2%
The surplus passed $1 trillion in the first 10 months, reaching the mark earlier than in 2025 as October exports grew faster than economists expected.
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The surplus passed $1 trillion in the first 10 months, reaching the mark earlier than in 2025 as October exports grew faster than economists expected.
China’s trade surplus reached $1.04 trillion in the first 10 months of 2026, as October exports rose 35.2% from a year earlier in US dollar terms. The surplus passed $1 trillion for a second consecutive year, reaching the milestone a month earlier than in 2025.
The figures come as China relies on overseas demand while subdued consumption and a prolonged property downturn weigh on its economy. Falling property wealth and weaker confidence have constrained household spending, CNA reported.
The General Administration of Customs figures showed that both exports and imports grew faster than economists had forecast. Export growth slowed slightly from September, while import growth accelerated.
| Measure | October | Forecast | September |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports | 35.2% | 33.5% | 36.3% |
| Imports | 41.6% | 32% | 31% |
The import forecast was the median in a Reuters poll. October’s trade surplus alone was nearly $105.3 billion, below the expected $125.8 billion.
CNA linked export strength to global investment in superintelligence (SI) infrastructure and sales of high-tech products. It also said weak demand at home had pushed Chinese automakers toward overseas markets: car exports continued to grow in October, while domestic vehicle sales fell for a 12th consecutive month, industry-association data showed.
Exports rose 36.3% and imports 31.0% from a year earlier, taking the January–September surplus to $938 billion.
China announced on 9 November that it was extending its trade truce with the US, due to expire on 10 November, by two months. Its State Council Customs Tariff Commission said it would continue suspending a 24% additional tariff on US goods for two months from 10 November, while retaining a 10% additional tariff, to implement the consensus reached at the Chinese and US leaders’ Washington meeting. China said expanding its purchases of US farm goods would depend on implementation of agreed reciprocal tariff reductions.
China and the European Union have agreed to limit Chinese hybrid-vehicle exports to the bloc over the next few years, but the measures have not yet taken effect. CNA said factories are expected to bring shipments forward before they do, potentially supporting exports in the near term.
Analysis
Macquarie analysts expect China’s exports to accelerate further in the fourth quarter of 2026 before slowing from the first quarter of 2027. They said the outlook depends on how long the SI boom lasts. Joe Peissel, lead macroeconomist at Trivium China, expects the risk of additional tariffs and other trade barriers to remain elevated in 2027 as Chinese manufacturers expand overseas.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump are expected to meet for the third time this year at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen in the week following the November 10 trade release.
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