Copernicus confirms October was the hottest on record
The EU climate service’s monthly assessment is complete. Berkeley Earth forecasts a 95% chance that 2026 will also beat the annual record set in 2024.
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The EU climate service’s monthly assessment is complete. Berkeley Earth forecasts a 95% chance that 2026 will also beat the annual record set in 2024.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed on 6 November that October 2026 was the hottest October recorded globally. Its average global surface temperature was 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels, before widespread industrial activity.
The monthly record does not settle the ranking of the full year. Berkeley Earth, an independent US research group, told BBC News that it was 95% confident 2026 would surpass the annual record set in 2024, with two months remaining.
Copernicus gave a different outlook: it considered 2026 most likely to finish second-warmest, with a 20% chance of surpassing 2024, DW said. In its November 9 outlook, the UN’s World Meteorological Organization forecast that 2026 would be among the four warmest years on record.
Copernicus also said 2026 would almost certainly average more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, making it the second calendar year after 2024 to exceed that level. The Paris Agreement’s temperature goal concerns long-term warming, so a single year above the threshold does not by itself establish that the goal has been breached.
Samantha Burgess of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts said an exceptionally strong El Niño was adding heat to a climate already warmed by human activity. The center implements the EU’s Copernicus climate service.
The main driver of rising global temperatures is the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, largely caused by burning fossil fuels.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that releases heat from the ocean rather than adding new heat to the planet, World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said. She said the ocean was the warmest ever measured, leaving more heat available to release. The organization expects the unusually powerful El Niño to continue into 2027 and push temperatures higher.
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