Euro-area consumers expect higher inflation and weaker growth

Euro-area consumers expected higher inflation over the next year, a deeper economic contraction and higher unemployment in September than in August, according to the European Central Bank’s survey released on 23 October 2026. Their longer-term inflation expectations were unchanged.

How households’ expectations changed

The inflation figures are medians—the middle value among responses. All the figures below describe consumers’ expectations, not measured economic outcomes.

The negative growth expectation means consumers expected the economy to shrink, with a larger contraction than they anticipated in August. The ECB described the labour-market outlook as broadly stable because expected unemployment remained only slightly above the 10.6% rate respondents perceived at the time.

Households report tighter credit access

The net share of households reporting tighter access to credit over the previous year increased from August. This measure subtracts the share reporting easier access from the share reporting tighter access. The same measure also rose for households’ expectations of credit conditions over the next year.

What the survey measures

The monthly online survey covers about 19,000 adults aged 18 or over in 11 euro-area countries. Fieldwork for this round ran from 27 August to 28 September 2026.

The ECB uses the results alongside other data for policy analysis. The responses describe households’ views, not those of the bank’s decision-making bodies or staff.

The ECB has scheduled the October survey results for release on 27 November 2026.