European Central Bank puts second-half 2026 wage growth at 2.7%
The tracker puts growth at 2.8% in the first half of 2027; both readings were revised up by about 0.1 percentage points on average from September.
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The tracker puts growth at 2.8% in the first half of 2027; both readings were revised up by about 0.1 percentage points on average from September.
Sole source: The European Central Bank’s November 4 wage tracker puts negotiated wage growth at 2.7% for the second half of 2026 and 2.8% for the first half of 2027. Both readings are around 0.1 percentage points higher on average than in the September release.
The figures describe pay in active collective bargaining agreements—deals negotiated on behalf of groups of workers—not a forecast of wages for all employees. The bank says the tracker can be revised as agreements are signed or renewed. The update includes agreements signed through mid-October 2026 and extends the tracker through September 2027.
The tracker directly covers 46.2% of employees in participating countries for 2026, falling to 31.8% in the first half of 2027 and 23.3% in the third quarter. The headline reading falls to 2.4% in that third quarter, when coverage is still limited. The bank says coverage will grow as more agreements are signed.
The agreements cover Belgium, Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria and Finland. The bank combines agreements into national readings using employee coverage, then weights the national readings by each participating country’s total employee compensation.
The headline measure spreads one-off payments, such as bonuses or back pay, over 12 months. The bank says that makes it better suited to showing monthly or quarterly changes; a separate measure leaves those payments unsmoothed and is better suited to annual changes. A third measure excludes them to show permanent negotiated increases.
| Measure | 2026 | First half of 2027 | Third quarter of 2027 |
|---|
| Unsmoothed one-off payments | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.4% |
| Excluding one-off payments | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% |
Excluding one-offs, the tracker averages 2.8% over the first three quarters of 2027, which the bank says indicates slightly higher permanent negotiated wage growth than in 2026. The bank says the readings excluding one-offs continue to indicate limited scope for one-off payments in recently signed collective bargaining agreements.
The bank says the relatively low headline reading in the first half of 2026 still reflects a mechanical downward effect from one-off payments made in the second half of 2024 and not repeated the following year. That effect disappears fully in the second half of 2026.
The tracker helps the bank assess wage pressures but differs from its separate indicator based on nationally calculated negotiated-wage data. For a broader assessment, the bank points to its September staff projection of 3.3% growth in compensation per employee in 2026.
The next tracker release is scheduled for 18 December 2026 and will extend the horizon through the full year of 2027. The bank says new or renewed agreements can change the wage signals, particularly around the turn of the year, as many agreements in some countries are signed or renewed in the first quarter.
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