UK health agency estimates 2,200 cold-linked deaths in England
The agency estimates that a nine-day January spell accounted for 1,563 deaths, with the findings informing preparations for the coming winter.
Loading… Բեռնվում է…
The agency estimates that a nine-day January spell accounted for 1,563 deaths, with the findings informing preparations for the coming winter.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) estimates that 2,200 deaths in England were associated with five cold-weather episodes during winter 2025–26. Its report, published on 22 October, puts the previous winter’s estimate at 2,788 deaths across three episodes. These are statistical estimates of deaths associated with cold periods, not counts of individual deaths certified as caused by cold.
| Winter | Cold-weather episodes | Estimated associated deaths |
|---|---|---|
| 2024–25 | 3 | 2,788 |
| 2025–26 | 5 | 2,200 |
The most severe episode was a nine-day spell in early January 2026, associated with an estimated 1,563 deaths—more than two-thirds of the winter total.
UKHSA analyses daily death registrations alongside Met Office temperature data. Statistical modelling estimates how the risk of death changes as temperatures fall and how effects accumulate over several days. The method does not rely on death certificates recording cold as a cause.
Dr Agostinho Sousa, the agency’s head of extreme events and health protection, said even short cold spells can lead to increased deaths in the days and weeks that follow. The health effects therefore extend beyond the cold spell itself.
The NIH–NASA competition seeks better measurements in laboratory drug-safety models, with submissions scheduled to open on 15 December 2026.
2 min
Circulatory diseases—conditions affecting the heart and blood vessels—accounted for the largest estimated number of cold-associated deaths, at 757. They also showed the strongest relationship between falling temperatures and mortality. Influenza and pneumonia followed a more complex pattern, with death risk increasing during both very cold weather and some milder periods.
UKHSA cautions against directly comparing these findings with its heat-mortality estimates because the methods differ. Its cold-episode estimates also complement, but are not directly comparable with, Office for National Statistics analyses of cold weather’s average impact over several decades.
The North West had the highest estimated cold-associated mortality rate, at 52 deaths per million people. No cold-associated deaths were identified in the North East during monitoring, although it was colder than many other regions.
UKHSA says housing quality, home heating, population health and adaptation to cold may influence regional patterns, but further research is needed to explain the differences.
The agency identifies people aged 65 and over, people with heart or respiratory conditions or dementia, and people in poorly insulated homes or unable to afford adequate heating as particularly at risk. Ahead of winter, Sousa advises keeping parts of the home warm, checking on vulnerable friends, relatives and neighbours, and following weather forecasts and public-health advice.
The findings feed into England’s cold-weather alerts and winter preparedness measures, alongside surveillance of seasonal infections.
The programme brings together national laboratories, universities and industry partners, with plans for a sensor-equipped test bed and self-adjusting pilot production lines.
2 min
Previously seen only through its infrared heat, the dusty feature is visible in reflected starlight, allowing researchers to test a possible collision origin.
4 min