France’s business confidence rises as hiring intentions weaken

France’s business-confidence index rose one point to 97 in October 2026, but hiring intentions weakened, according to figures reported by the Guardian on October 22. The headline index remained below its long-term average.

Manufacturing provided the main surprise: its business-climate index climbed from 101 in September to 105, beating market expectations and reaching its highest level since July 2022. The improvement in sentiment did not extend to employment expectations, which fell as services firms became less inclined to hire.

Better order books, weaker hiring plans

Manufacturing’s rise mainly reflected improved assessments of order books—the orders businesses have received. Both the overall and foreign-order survey balances became less negative. That indicates a better assessment, not proof that order volumes expanded.

The survey predates the latest unrest

Fieldwork ran from late September to early October. The readings therefore do not capture the violence and social unrest of the weekend before the October 22 report.

Charlotte de Montpellier, a senior economist at ING, described the rebound as encouraging but fragile and already partly overtaken by events. She also noted a sharp rise in perceived economic uncertainty, which in services reached its highest level outside the Covid-19 crisis.

De Montpellier warned that prolonged unrest could lead households to avoid city centres, tourists to postpone trips and businesses to delay investment. She said a brief, localised episode would probably have a limited effect on the wider economy. These were conditional risks, not effects measured by the survey.

Further protests are planned for the coming weekend.