NOAA’s revised GeoXO programme drops three planned instruments, while auditors warn of a future backup-satellite gap under a schedule calling for the first launch in 2032.
US auditors warn that weaknesses in NOAA’s reduced GeoXO satellite programme could put vital weather observations at risk, Eos reported on October 22. NOAA reduced the planned system from six satellites and five instruments to four satellites and two instruments after the US Department of Commerce directed it to cut costs.
GeoXO is intended to replace NOAA’s GOES-R satellite series. That existing fleet has two operational satellites and two backups in orbit, monitoring more than half the globe from above the equator. Its observations support storm forecasts, smoke and dust monitoring, aviation planning and lightning warnings. The audit concerns future capabilities and continuity, not an existing loss of those observations.
Eos reports that the revised plan also lowers the projected cost over the programme’s lifetime:
| Measure | Original plan | Revised plan |
|---|---|---|
| Satellites | 6 | 4 |
| Planned instruments | 5 | 2 |
| Projected lifetime cost | $19.6 billion | $13 billion |
The reduced plan removes three instruments and their intended capabilities:
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Separately, Democratic US representatives Zoe Lofgren and Gabe Amo alleged in a letter to NOAA that the cuts were intended to deprive the satellites of the ability to collect data informing Americans about climate change.
According to Eos’s account of the audit, NOAA policy requires at least two operational satellites and one spare. The first GeoXO launch is scheduled for 2032, but the current spare is projected to stop operating months before the first replacement becomes fully operational.
GAO warns that this creates a risk to the continuity of satellite data. It is a projected shortage of backup coverage, not a prediction that all observations will stop. The launch schedule predates the budget reduction, so the cuts did not create that scheduling problem.
GAO also found that an independent cost estimate for the restructured programme had not been completed, Eos reports. That leaves the reasonableness of the $13 billion projection unclear, according to the audit.
The audit found that GeoXO had not incorporated lessons from earlier satellite programmes on contingency planning and technical readiness—whether instruments are sufficiently developed for their intended use. GAO warned that failing to apply those lessons could jeopardize cost, schedule or performance goals and put weather observations at risk.
GAO recommends that the Commerce secretary ensure NOAA records the revised cost estimate, updates its contingency plans and documents a technology-readiness assessment for each instrument. Those are the recommended steps as NOAA prepares for the first GeoXO launch scheduled for 2032.
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