The annual carbon budget projects a 0.4% decline in fossil-fuel and cement carbon dioxide emissions in 2026, but rising land-use emissions are expected to push total emissions to a record 43.3 billion tonnes.
The Global Carbon Project projects that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and cement will fall by 0.4% in 2026, to about 38.2 billion tonnes. Its annual Global Carbon Budget nevertheless projects record total emissions of 43.3 billion tonnes, up from 42.8 billion tonnes in 2025, as emissions from changes in land use rise.
The fossil-emissions estimate is preliminary, not an observed annual result. Its range runs from a 1.5% decline to a 0.6% increase, so emissions could still rise. Carbon Brief published an analysis by members of the report team and a climate science contributor.
The budget projects a 1.9% fall in emissions from oil, the main driver of the fossil-emissions decline. It links most of that fall to higher prices and reduced output after the Iran conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz.
The projected rise in total emissions comes entirely from land use, which includes activities such as deforestation, wood harvesting, peatland drainage and fires, partly offset by forest regrowth and new forests. The report attributes the increase to peat fires and forest degradation in Southeast Asia under drier conditions associated with El Niño. Land-use emissions are harder to track and substantially more uncertain than fossil emissions.
Analysis
Research published alongside the budget by the same team in Nature Climate Change estimates that growth in solar power, wind power and electric vehicles offsets about two-thirds of the emissions that rising energy demand would otherwise add. The researchers say that is not yet enough to produce a sustained decline. Their central estimate suggests fossil emissions would have continued to rise in 2026 without the energy shock.
To estimate emissions avoided by those technologies, the researchers assumed fossil fuels would otherwise have supplied the same energy services, then compared the result with expected emissions growth from demand. The authors say this simplified method assumes each unit of clean energy replaces fossil energy one-for-one; it does not account for possible changes in demand or fossil-fuel costs as clean energy becomes cheaper.
The researchers also modeled two paths through 2028: one in which electric vehicle sales and solar and wind additions stay at 2026 levels, and another in which they accelerate along recent trends. In both, emissions remain above their 2025 level, assuming the 2026 energy-price shock does not persist.
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