Israel’s provisional vote count puts both main blocs short of a majority

Israel’s provisional parliamentary-election projections leave both main political blocs short of the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-member Knesset, Israel’s parliament. With 93% of ballots counted, the projected seat distribution remains unchanged, while officials began counting up to 480,000 absentee ballots on October 29.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing camp won a parliamentary majority in the November 1, 2022 election. The October 27, 2026 vote was Israel’s first parliamentary election since the October 7, 2023 attacks.

Absentee ballots could change seat allocations

The outstanding ballots include votes from soldiers, diplomats and hospital patients who could not reach their polling stations. These votes could change how many seats each party receives; the partial count does not establish a governing majority.

Israel’s Central Elections Committee said it had counted more than five million votes by 9pm local time on October 28. The earlier count stood at nearly 90%, with more than 500,000 special ballots outstanding.

These special votes use two envelopes. In its October 27 account, Ynet explained that election staff check the identifying outer envelope to prevent duplicate voting before adding the anonymous ballot to the count.

Voters choose party lists, and parties must receive at least 3.25% of valid votes to win seats. A small change in the final count can therefore determine whether a party enters parliament and alter the balance between the blocs.

Neither main bloc reaches 61 seats

Eisenkot leads Yashar. He served as chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces from 2015 to 2019 and as a minister in the unity government from 2023 to 2024.

The Joint List is an alliance of Arab-majority parties. Ra’am, also called the United Arab List, left the alliance in January 2021 and runs separately. Their projected combined total would give Arab-led parties a record 19 seats, but those seats are not part of an agreed governing coalition.

Before the vote, both Eisenkot and Netanyahu ruled out forming a minority government with Arab-led parties. Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen said his alliance could support an anti-Netanyahu government from outside, but would not join it.

Final results come before coalition talks

Israeli law requires official results to be published by November 4. President Isaac Herzog said on October 28 that he expected to receive them during the first week of November, after which he would consult every parliamentary faction.

Herzog will select the lawmaker he believes has the best chance of assembling a governing coalition. Leading the largest faction does not automatically make its leader prime minister. Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have said they will try to form a government; negotiations could take weeks, and failure could ultimately lead to another election.

The new Knesset is scheduled to be sworn in on November 10, even if coalition negotiations are unfinished. Netanyahu and the outgoing government remain in a caretaker capacity until a new government is sworn in.