The forecast shortfall narrowed from 500MW to 200MW before the notice was canceled on 9 November. The operator said customer supplies were not at risk and people did not need to act.
Britain’s National Energy System Operator (Neso) canceled its electricity margin notice just after 09:00 UK time (13:00 Yerevan time) on 9 November, after the forecast shortfall narrowed. The Guardian said an earlier call for extra generation helped reduce the shortfall to 500MW before it narrowed further to 200MW.
The government-owned operator balances electricity supply and demand around the clock. Its notice concerned the margin of available supply, not an inability to meet customer demand. Neso called it a routine precaution intended to give the market an opportunity to make more generation capacity available.
“This is not a warning of power cuts, there is no risk to customer electricity supplies, and customers do not need to take action – Great Britain’s electricity system remains secure,”
Neso’s initial notice on Sunday night forecast a shortfall of almost 1,400MW in supply margins for 9 November from 06:00 to 11:00 UK time (10:00–15:00 Yerevan time). It sought about 800MW of extra generation, equivalent to a medium-sized gas power plant, within eight hours ahead of a review scheduled for 04:00 UK time (08:00 Yerevan time).
A second notice said no further contingency power was required, although Neso could still ask plants to generate more than usual between 08:00 and 11:00 UK time (12:00–15:00 Yerevan time). It scheduled another supply review for 07:30 UK time (11:30 Yerevan time).
Margin notices have typically been used on cold winter evenings, when demand is often at its highest. The first summer notices followed heatwaves that increased demand and reduced generation.
The Guardian said there were no grid constraints making plants or wind farms unavailable and that the UK was forecast to export electricity to Europe. It suggested that low wind speeds across Europe may have prompted the shortfall.
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