The completed preliminary count gives National and its partners a narrow prospective majority, but nearly 400,000 special votes remain for the final tally and could change the result.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National Party and its current coalition partners, ACT and NZ First, have 67 projected seats after New Zealand’s completed preliminary election count. That would give them a one-seat majority, but it does not settle who will form the next government.
On 9 November, party leaders said they would wait for the final results before formal coalition discussions. Luxon had earlier said his coalition had a mandate to govern, while acknowledging that the result was too close to call definitively.
National is the largest party in Electoral Commission preliminary seat projections, rather than final allocations, published by France 24 with AFP.
| Party | Projected seats |
|---|---|
| National | 42 |
| Labour | 36 |
| Green Party | 16 |
| ACT | 13 |
| NZ First | 12 |
| Opportunity Party | 7 |
| Te Pāti Māori | 5 |
At an earlier stage, when 97% had been counted, Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori together had 56 provisional seats. National had 29.3% of the party vote and Labour 29.2%.
Under New Zealand’s mixed-member proportional system, voters choose a local candidate and a party, not the country’s leader; local and party-list MPs make representation proportional to the party vote.
The draft would let strategic projects operate for up to 70 years, with corporate income tax exemptions for up to four years and subsequent reductions of up to 50% for no more than nine years. A parliamentary committee says the incentives are very high and their benefits have not been assessed.
The centrist Opportunity Party crossed the 5% threshold to enter parliament for the first time. Its leader, Qiulae Wong, said the party would work with either major bloc; its leaders said they would negotiate first with the party that wins the most seats.
Wong said on 9 November that congratulatory calls from Labour leader Chris Hipkins and Greens leader Chlöe Swarbrick had not included coalition discussions.
Nearly 400,000 special votes are being counted and could change the seat totals. They include ballots cast overseas and by people outside their home electorates, and account for 14% of all votes.
Luxon said his government would continue normal daily business under caretaker conventions while a new government is formed. He said meaningful coalition negotiations would begin after the final results, expected on 27 November. There is no fixed timeframe for forming a government; official confirmation of members of parliament is scheduled for 3 December.
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