Researchers rank Pacific cables by their exposure to sabotage
A September 2026 assessment places Google, Meta and Verizon-backed projects in its top five, offering a guide to where sensors and patrols could be prioritised.
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A September 2026 assessment places Google, Meta and Verizon-backed projects in its top five, offering a guide to where sensors and patrols could be prioritised.
Pacific internet cables connecting the United States with Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines face some of the region’s greatest exposure to potential sabotage, a September 2026 assessment says. Their routes cross shallow water, busy shipping lanes and contested waters—conditions the researchers identify as increasing vulnerability.
The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, an independent government body advising Congress, commissioned the assessment from the London-based China Strategic Risks Institute. It examines “gray-zone” tactics: actions such as sabotage or tampering that fall short of direct military confrontation.
Most undersea cable damage is accidental, caused by fishing nets dragged along the seabed or dragging ship anchors. Storms and undersea landslides also cause damage. The assessment instead asks where deliberate disruption could be most damaging and where protection should be prioritised.
Analysis
The Trans-Pacific Cable Gray Zone Vulnerability Index combines cable depth, nearby shipping traffic, ownership, China’s exclusive economic zone and broader territorial claims, and whether a cable connects to Taiwan. Taiwan is self-governing but claimed by China. The index ranks assessed vulnerability; its rankings are not a record of cable failures.
Formiche’s September 22 account says the researchers assessed 32 US trans-Pacific cables in 20-kilometre segments and placed Trans-Pacific Express first. Three projects still under development also scored in the top five:
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| Project | Ownership |
|---|
| TPU | |
| ORCA | Meta |
| E2A | Verizon and firms in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan |
The assessment also identifies mainland US connections to Hawaii and Guam as particularly vulnerable because they have few alternative connections available if a cable fails.
A separate October 2026 study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based think tank, examined movements of more than 200 research ships from multiple countries during 2020–2025. Ars Technica brought its findings together with the September assessment.
CSIS found that China-flagged research ships stood out for the time they spent near undersea infrastructure, even compared with the highly active US and Russian research fleets. Several Chinese ships followed survey-style tracks near cables rather than exploring areas known for undersea mineral deposits. Those patterns suggest apparent surveying, not proof of sabotage or a particular mission’s intent.
The distinction matters because undersea equipment can be dual-use: it can serve civilian and military purposes. Research vessels carry seabed-mapping equipment, while cable cutters can support either repair work or sabotage. The commissioned assessment warns that China is developing technologies with both legitimate civilian uses and potential offensive military uses.
Actual cable damage led to a conviction in Taiwan in 2025. A Chinese captain received a three-year prison sentence after his ship dropped anchor and followed a zigzag course that damaged Tai-Peng 3, the cable linking Taiwan with the offshore islands of Penghu.
Analysis
The September assessment models disruption scenarios rather than describing observed outages. Its authors warn that serious disruption to one trans-Pacific cable could overwhelm available capacity on direct routes between the United States, Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines, forcing data onto slower, less direct routes.
If several cables were disrupted simultaneously, potentially during a Taiwan crisis, the authors warn that spare capacity across the Pacific could be exhausted. US–Indo-Pacific communications could then need to travel through cables elsewhere in the world. The researchers forecast consequences for internet communications, cloud services and financial trading, where delays can matter.
The index could guide decisions about where to place underwater sensors and monitoring patrols. The assessment recommends that Congress improve shared monitoring of maritime activity with allies, replenish aging cable-repair fleets and invest in civilian and military undersea capabilities to protect the network.
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