US ranchers face hurdles to herd growth despite record prices
A temporary beef tariff pause made imports cheaper as ranchers prepared to sell, adding price uncertainty to decisions about rebuilding the small US herd.
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A temporary beef tariff pause made imports cheaper as ranchers prepared to sell, adding price uncertainty to decisions about rebuilding the small US herd.
US cattle prices reached records in 2026, but there is still little evidence that ranchers are expanding their herds, said David Anderson, an agricultural economist at Texas A&M University. High borrowing, feed and land costs are limiting profits, while changes to beef tariffs have added uncertainty over selling prices.
The US cattle herd is near its smallest size since 1951. That limited supply has helped drive cattle prices to record highs, but higher sales revenue does not necessarily leave ranchers with enough money to raise more animals.
In late August, US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on certain beef tariffs—taxes on imports—making imported beef cheaper, particularly beef from Brazil. The announcement came as many ranchers were preparing to take their cattle to market.
Al Jazeera said cattle-auction prices fell sharply after the announcement, temporarily reducing ranchers’ profits. The pause was intended to bring down consumer prices, but its ultimate effect on grocery prices remains unclear.
Imported beef also serves a specific role in hamburger production: lean Brazilian beef is often mixed with fattier US beef to make patties. A 50 percent tariff Trump imposed on Brazil in 2025 had raised the cost of importing that lean beef.
Analysis
Anderson, who advises ranchers, said high cattle prices should have encouraged investment in larger herds. In his assessment, making imports cheaper may instead have nudged ranchers away from expansion by weakening the price incentive to produce more beef domestically.
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Chad Basinger, a rancher in Pretty Prairie, Kansas, offered a different assessment of how much the tariff decision would change established operators’ plans. He said the announcement was frustrating but would not change many established ranchers’ strategies, and that imports would not be the biggest factor in most ranchers’ herd decisions this year.
Many ranchers operate at a loss for several years and rely on a few profitable years to repay debt or expand. In 2026, high loan interest rates and drought-driven increases in feed costs have reduced the gains from record cattle prices.
Expansion can also require more land. Rangeland is increasingly expensive, and outside investors can often outbid ranchers when it comes up for sale, potentially leaving less land available for cattle.
Basinger said ranchers who raise cows and calves generally did well this year. In Kansas, he has seen operators spend profits on repairs and upgrades. He said high cattle prices need to last longer to give ranchers more financial room for larger purchases, such as neighbouring land that could accommodate a growing herd.
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