Inventories add 1.6 percentage points to US third-quarter GDP growth
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates net trade contributed -3.3 percentage points, while inflation-adjusted private domestic final sales rose at an annualized rate of 4.9%, up from 4.6% in the second quarter, showing faster growth in private domestic demand.
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Inventory accumulation contributed 1.6 percentage points, nearly half of US economic growth in the third quarter of 2026, while private domestic demand accelerated from the second quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures detailed by Fortune show uneven growth beneath the overall increase in gross domestic product (GDP), the economy’s output.
Inventories are goods businesses hold for later sale. Their contribution lifted growth, while net trade—exports minus imports—subtracted 3.3 percentage points from growth as imports increased and exports fell.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers gives a different view: it combines consumer spending with private fixed investment, including housing and business equipment, while excluding inventories, trade and government spending. It rose 4.9% in the third quarter, up from 4.6% in the second quarter, showing that private domestic demand strengthened even as trade held back GDP.
Equipment spending rises as housing investment falls
The equipment breakdowns come from BEA data analyzed by Goldman Sachs. They contrast with the decline in housing investment.
| Spending component | Change |
|---|---|
| Housing investment | -3.3% |
| Information-processing equipment, including computers and peripherals | 37.4% |
| Industrial equipment | 24.7% |
Percentage changes describe how much spending on each component grew or shrank. Percentage-point contributions instead describe how much a component added to or subtracted from the overall GDP growth rate. BEA expresses its quarterly percentage changes at seasonally adjusted annual rates unless specified otherwise: the pace that would result if the quarter’s rate continued for a year.
David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, said falling homeownership, particularly among younger Americans, was delaying plans to marry, settle down and raise families in their own homes. He argued that weak housing also restrains economic growth and inflation.
Analysis
Goldman forecasts a slower fourth quarter
Real, or inflation-adjusted, consumer spending was flat in September, the final month of the quarter. Goldman Sachs expects the earlier fiscal-stimulus boost to consumption to fade completely and forecasts slower growth in the fourth quarter.
| Measure | Forecast change |
|---|---|
| GDP and consumer spending | 1.8% growth each |
| Housing investment | 5.0% annualized decline |
| Business investment | 8.2% growth |
Goldman attributes its forecast rise in business investment to superintelligence (SI). Its economists nevertheless expect SI investment’s share of GDP to shrink in coming quarters, along with the boost to consumption from rising asset prices.
The third-quarter figures are BEA’s advance estimate and remain subject to revision. The bureau is scheduled to publish its second estimate on 25 November 2026, replacing the current figures.
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