Vietnam records its hottest October since 1961
The national mean reached 26.3°C, or 1.74°C above the long-term average, as the forecasting center projects above-average temperatures through January.
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The national mean reached 26.3°C, or 1.74°C above the long-term average, as the forecasting center projects above-average temperatures through January.
Vietnam’s National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said in its November 2 assessment that October’s national mean temperature was 26.3°C, or 1.74°C above the long-term average, and the highest for the month since observations began in 1961. VnExpress said northern Vietnam was 2–3°C warmer than normal, while some southern areas were around 0.5–1°C warmer and the remaining areas were unchanged from previous years.
Temperatures at 61 of 215 weather stations matched or exceeded historical highs. Separately, monthly mean temperatures at 98 stations matched or exceeded previous records, including 87 stations in the north.
In its seasonal outlook, the center gives El Niño a 96% probability of continuing at very strong intensity from November 2026 through January 2027. El Niño is a climate pattern associated with warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
The center forecasts mean temperatures generally 1–2°C above the long-term average nationwide in November. For December 2026 and January 2027, it expects temperatures generally 0.5–1.5°C above average, and 1–2°C above average in the Central Highlands and south.
The center expects weaker cold-air activity and a later arrival of severe cold, with fewer severe-cold days in the north and north-central regions. Brief intense spells could still bring sharp temperature drops. It also expects fewer storms and tropical depressions than average over the South China Sea and making landfall in Vietnam during the period. The respective long-term averages are 2.8 and 1.1 systems.
November rainfall is forecast to be 15–30% above average in the north and 20–40% below average in central Vietnam, though moderate to heavy rain remains possible in central areas during November and December, particularly from Hà Tĩnh to Huế and along the South Central Coast. Widespread heavy rain is expected to decrease in January. The center also warns that thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning, hail and strong gusts remain possible nationwide. Storms, tropical depressions and cold air can bring strong winds and high waves that affect boats.
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The center expects November rainfall to be near the long-term average from Thanh Hóa to Hà Tĩnh and in the south. In December, it forecasts 10–20 mm above average in the north, near-average rainfall from Thanh Hóa to Hà Tĩnh, and deficits of 20–40 mm from Quảng Trị to Huế, 50–100 mm on the South Central Coast and 10–20 mm in the Central Highlands and south. In January, rainfall is forecast to be generally near average in the north and from Thanh Hóa to Hà Tĩnh, but 10–30 mm below average elsewhere, with generally little rain in the Central Highlands and south.
On 30 October, Prime Minister Le Minh Hung issued Directive 39 in response to the risk of unusual natural disasters associated with El Niño. It asks local authorities to review water-supply and disaster-response scenarios, identify areas at risk of water shortages and prepare plans that prioritize households, healthcare facilities and other essential consumers.
The directive also calls for planting schedules, crop choices and cultivated areas to be adjusted to available water, faster construction of irrigation and clean-water infrastructure, measures to control saltwater intrusion, and preparations to prevent and fight forest fires. Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Environment must improve meteorological, hydrological, water-resource and disaster forecasting and warnings, shifting from warnings about weather events to alerts about their potential impacts, while the ministries of National Defense and Public Security must keep personnel and equipment ready to help with water supply, forest fires, evacuations and search and rescue.
The center advises authorities to update production, disaster-response and reservoir plans using forecasts and warnings for the next 1–3 days, to protect infrastructure and downstream areas. Its next seasonal bulletin is scheduled for before 15:00 Vietnam time on 15 November 2026.
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