Europe pays €127 billion ($142 billion) more for fuel, European Commission president says

Europe has paid an additional €127 billion (about $142 billion) for imported fossil fuels since the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, without getting any more energy for the money, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said at the WinWin Brussels Summit.

The Commission estimated the extra cost at €24 billion (about $26.8 billion) in April 2026, about seven weeks into the war. In late September, EU energy commissioner Dan Jørgensen estimated the extra cost at more than €100 billion, also without buying additional oil or gas.

EU gas storage is entering the heating season at its lowest level since 2013, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Low inventories leave Europe with a smaller buffer against supply disruptions.

How Europe’s supply changed

After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Russia sharply reduced gas deliveries to the EU. Europe largely replaced that gas with imports from other suppliers, including liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is cooled for transport by ship, from the United States and the Middle East.

The Iran war then brought tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz almost to a halt. The waterway had carried about one-fifth of the world’s traded oil. The IEA says disruption to LNG flows through the strait pushed Asian LNG and European gas prices to their highest levels since the 2022–23 energy crisis.

By September, drivers in some EU countries were paying nearly 50% more for fuel, with prices exceeding $11 a gallon, Fortune said. In Italy, a weeklong truckers' strike over diesel prices halted milk deliveries to mozzarella makers. EU officials expect oil and gas prices to remain above prewar levels until at least the end of 2027.

Analysis

Winter risks and possible savings

The IEA estimates that EU storage could fall below 10% of usable capacity by the end of March 2027 if weather is colder than average and LNG flows through Hormuz remain disrupted. Separately, EU gas network operators have warned that a severe cold snap could produce a shortfall equivalent to 12% to 15% of demand.

Low storage could also increase Europe’s reliance on global LNG supplies to meet winter demand, intensify competition with other importing regions for available LNG shipments and push up prices when demand is high, the IEA says. Gas tends to come out of storage more slowly once sites fall below 30% of usable capacity. A low level at winter’s end would also increase the need to refill stores in summer 2027, potentially keeping the market tight for longer.

Jørgensen asked EU countries to consider voluntary measures to reduce demand, particularly in transport, while the IEA’s oil-saving plan included car-free Sundays. EU energy ministers discussed EU-wide consumption limits in late October.

Reducing imports

Von der Leyen argues that Europe should import less energy because oil and gas imports expose it to external shocks. She called a return to Russian fuel a “strategic blunder.”

EU members adopted a ban in January 2026 that schedules an end to Russian LNG imports by the end of 2026 and pipeline gas imports by autumn 2027. The EU has also pledged climate neutrality by 2050 and a 90% emissions cut by 2040; von der Leyen said Europe would keep its targets and support its clean industries.