Charlie Precourt raised the estimate while assessing Artemis IV risks. SpaceX founder Elon Musk disputed it, forecasting six to eight flights to supply the propellant needed for a lunar voyage.
NASA safety-panel member and former astronaut Charlie Precourt cited an estimate of around 22 flights to fuel a Moon lander as a risk to Artemis IV on 22 October 2026. At its 23 October briefing, NASA described a revised plan in which a fueled Starship would meet Orion in Earth orbit and propel it to the Moon, SpacePolicyOnline reported.
Artemis IV is planned for 2028 as the first US astronaut landing on the Moon since 1972. NASA changed Artemis III from a lunar landing into an Earth-orbit mission, planned for mid-2027, to practise meeting and docking with test versions of the two landers.
The revised arrangements change how the landers reach the Moon and where they meet Orion, NASA’s crew spacecraft. Starship would also propel Orion toward the Moon. Blue Origin instead plans to use three smaller spacecraft as tugs for its lander.
| Lander | Revised plan | Earlier plan |
|---|---|---|
| SpaceX’s Starship | Dock with Orion in Earth orbit after refueling, then propel it to the Moon. | Meet Orion in lunar orbit. |
| Blue Origin’s Blue Moon MK2 | Use three Blue Moon MK1 spacecraft as tugs to reach lunar orbit and meet Orion there. |
The agency plans earlier docking for Starship and is developing a rocket stage that would let Orion meet Blue Moon closer to the lunar surface.
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| Use in-space propellant transfer to reach the Moon. |
Under either plan, two astronauts would transfer from Orion into the lander near the Moon, descend to the surface and return to lunar orbit. Orion would bring them back to Earth.
Starship still needs propellant transferred in space before it can leave Earth orbit. Tanker spacecraft would deliver liquid oxygen and methane to a storage spacecraft, or depot, in low-Earth orbit. The propellant would fuel the lunar lander’s journey to the Moon, descent and return to lunar orbit.
These are cryogenic propellants—liquids kept at extremely low temperatures. The depot would need replenishment as liquid warms and evaporates, a process called boil-off. Such depots do not yet exist, and transferring cryogenic propellant between spacecraft has not been demonstrated. The amount lost to boil-off and the efficiency of transfer remain uncertain; both affect how much usable propellant each delivery adds.
Both providers must conduct uncrewed tests demonstrating safe lunar landings. Precourt said NASA requires one landing test followed by an engine restart, but does not require a demonstration of liftoff and return to lunar orbit—the journey astronauts would need after their surface stay.
NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel plans to recommend reviewing Artemis IV’s objectives and potentially its overall design, along with subsequent missions. Precourt called for detailed ground and flight testing and data-collection plans for every test objective, including uncrewed lander demonstrations. The forthcoming recommendation is not an adopted change to NASA’s requirements.
The panel also highlighted the south pole’s steep slopes, low Sun angles and temperature extremes, compared with Apollo’s safer sites nearer the equator. Precourt warned that abort options are more limited there and that cryogenic propellants would be used on the lunar surface for the first time. He said Artemis IV’s many first-time operations reduce the likelihood of mission success.
At the 23 October briefing, NASA retained the south pole as its intended destination but said it needed more data from robotic landers before making a final decision.
Launch expectations have shifted over several years. In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan, then director of NASA’s Human Landing System, told Ars Technica that the agency had a general idea but was reluctant to give a precise count. She later described the range as the “high single digits to the low double digits.”
Precourt did not name Starship in his 22 October remarks; Ars Technica identified SpaceX’s vehicle as his subject. Responding to the reporter on X, SpaceX founder Elon Musk called the estimate “way too high.” The figures concern supplying propellant, not repeated Moon landings.
| Speaker | Estimated flights | How the figure was presented |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Precourt | Around 22 | Latest estimate cited during the NASA safety-panel meeting |
| Elon Musk | 6–8 | Forecast offered in response to Precourt’s estimate |
Neither figure is a demonstrated flight requirement. Ars Technica identified Starship’s carrying capacity and the propellant needed for a lunar landing as key inputs: delivering more propellant per launch would reduce the tanker flights required.
NASA deputy associate administrator for human exploration Kelvin Manning described plans for SpaceX to demonstrate cryogenic propellant transfer in space in early 2027 and conduct an uncrewed lunar landing test in late 2027. The 23 October briefing reaffirmed those planned tests, alongside the mid-2027 Artemis III docking mission and crewed landings targeted for 2028.
The upper stage survived Flight 13’s July splashdown. Its return gives engineers the chance to inspect hardware after spaceflight and reentry.
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Update ·
NASA describes revised Starship and Blue Origin transport plans, with orbital refueling and uncrewed lunar landing demonstrations still ahead.
Update ·
Adds the safety panel’s planned Artemis IV review recommendation, its concerns about landing tests and south-pole conditions, and the planned 2027 demonstrations.
