The World Meteorological Organization says the imbalance grew by 0.3 W/m² per decade in 2001–2025, compared with 0.13 W/m² per decade in 1960–2025; these rates measure growth in the imbalance, not temperature increases or its absolute size. It reached a record in 2025 since monitoring began in 1960; preliminary measurements suggest another in January–July 2026.
Earth’s energy imbalance—the difference between energy arriving from the sun and energy leaving the planet—is growing as greenhouse gases trap heat. In its climate update, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says that means heat is accumulating at an accelerating rate.
Ocean heat estimates indicate the imbalance increased by 0.3 W/m² per decade during 2001–2025, compared with 0.13 W/m² per decade during 1960–2025—rates of change in the imbalance, not temperature increases or its absolute size—The Guardian wrote on 9 November.
The WMO says the imbalance reached its highest observed level in 2025, in a record that began in 1960. Preliminary January–July 2026 values suggest another record. The agency uses ocean heat measurements and satellite observations to track the change; its update includes data through September 2026 where available and does not capture the most recent effects of El Niño.
Greenhouse gas levels reached a record in 2025, and benchmark monitoring stations indicate a continued increase in 2026, the WMO says. Atmospheric carbon dioxide rose from around 278 parts per million in 1750 to about 426.8 parts per million in 2025, an increase of 53%.
The WMO released its climate update on the first day of COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye.
The observed partial-year global average near-surface temperature for January–September 2026 was 1.47°C ± 0.13°C above the 1850–1900 average, based on nine datasets. The WMO expects the full-year average to be higher as El Niño develops, and 2026 to rank among the four warmest years on record.
| Full year | Temperature difference |
|---|---|
| 2023 | |
The EU climate service’s monthly assessment is complete. Berkeley Earth forecasts a 95% chance that 2026 will also beat the annual record set in 2024.
La Niña conditions temporarily cooled temperatures at the start of the year, before El Niño reversed that effect, the WMO says. El Niño, a recurring Pacific climate pattern, releases heat already stored in the ocean without adding new heat to the planet, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said. El Niño typically raises annual global mean temperatures by around 0.1–0.2°C. The agency says it has intensified since August and expects it to be the strongest on record by December and to continue into early 2027; its greatest effect on annual global temperatures typically comes in the following year.
The ocean absorbs 90% of the excess heat, the WMO says. Heat in its upper 2,000 meters reached an observed record in 2025; preliminary data through July show a further rise in 2026. The agency expects this to be the tenth consecutive year of record ocean warmth. Global monthly average sea-surface temperatures in June, July and August 2026 were the highest or second highest on record for those months.
Ocean heat intensifies tropical and subtropical storms and accelerates polar sea-ice loss, the WMO says. Global mean sea level reached a record high in 2026. June, July and August each saw their highest respective values since satellite altimetry began in 1993. The agency attributes the accelerating rise since satellite records began to increased melting of glaciers and ice sheets and to warming seawater expanding.
Antarctic sea ice reached its third-lowest annual maximum in the satellite record, while the Arctic maximum was the lowest or second lowest. Glaciers lost more than 400 gigatons of ice in 2025, equivalent to approximately 1 mm of sea-level rise; all 19 glaciated regions lost ice for a fourth consecutive year.
Saulo described El Niño as a multiplier of weather risks. An extreme heatwave exposed roughly 146.5 million people in India in April 2026. In Europe, provisional estimates put excess deaths during the summer above 30,000, including approximately 16,000 during the 22–28 June heatwave. Excess deaths are deaths above the number normally expected.
In late August, a Himalayan glacier collapse caused a flash flood downstream that killed more than 1,300 people in Nepal. Saulo said the ice and rock collapse and floods illustrated the combined risks facing communities in warming high-mountain terrain.
The WMO says heat, drought and heavy rain can contribute to illness, deaths, wildfire smoke, food insecurity, injuries and changing risks from water- and vector-borne diseases such as cholera, malaria and dengue. The World Health Organization has for the first time classified the anticipated health impacts of the current El Niño as a health emergency. El Niño is also already increasing agricultural risks, especially where food insecurity is high and farming depends on rainfall.
Analysis
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the world had entered a new age of climate extremes, with a supersized El Niño meeting a planet already heated by human-caused climate change. He called for faster emissions cuts, a transition from fossil fuels, and finance and protection for vulnerable countries. The WMO stresses sustained observations and forecasts; it says the number of countries reporting early-warning systems for multiple hazards rose from 56 in 2015 to 136 in 2025.
Bill McGuire, University College London’s professor emeritus of geophysical and climate hazards, identified the growing energy imbalance as his chief concern. He said natural feedbacks were accelerating warming and assessed that research suggested a permanent crossing of 1.5°C in 2028 and warming beyond 2°C in the late 2030s. McGuire said the planet was warming by 0.4°C per decade and regarded end-of-century estimates of 2.6–2.8°C as wildly optimistic, if not impossible.
The WMO plans to issue its final State of the Global Climate 2026 report in March 2027.
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Family doctors plan extra checks and support for 300,000 people with frailty and long-term conditions this winter, with the aim of preventing avoidable hospital admissions.
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Update ·
Revised from the day's reports.
Update ·
The update adds human impacts of extreme weather and growing agricultural risks linked to El Niño.
