Researchers combined observations with simulations to estimate warming where records are incomplete. Their regional findings differ from the Paris Agreement’s global, long-term threshold.
Up to 94% of the regions assessed in a new study have already warmed more than 1.5°C since preindustrial times, researchers estimate.
The study, published in Nature Climate Change, found warming above 2°C in Canada and large portions of Europe. Some regions at very high latitudes exceeded 2.5°C; the Russian Arctic warmed 3.3°C, Eos said.
The researchers examined dozens of regions referenced in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report. They combined observations from within those regions and from around the world with simulations of past climate change to estimate warming where historical records are incomplete.
Xuebin Zhang, a University of Victoria climate scientist and study coauthor, said historical records are sparse or nonexistent in some places. Fellow coauthor Francis Zwiers said adequate observations in Canada extend back only to 1948, a problem shared by many other countries and regions.
The Paris threshold concerns the global average over a 20-year period, not warming in any one region or a single month’s temperature. Peter Stott, a University of Exeter climate scientist who did not take part in the study, wrote that the effects policymakers sought to avoid in Paris are already beginning to emerge.
Analysis
Under the high-emissions scenario called SSP5-8.5, the researchers project global warming reaching 1.5°C in 2029 and 2°C in 2042. The scenario describes fossil-fueled development with widespread energy- and resource-intensive lifestyles. The paper did not include projections for other emissions scenarios.
Zwiers said limiting warming to no more than 2°C remains possible but would require very rapid emissions reductions from current levels. Zhang said sustained monitoring and high-quality observations are needed to track regional change, understand its effects on people and ecosystems, and inform adaptation decisions.
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